With a limited number of homes available on the market, Walnut Grove's single family home and townhouse markets experience strong price increases through summer, but apartment prices remain flat.
Walnut Grove Single Family Home Prices ALMOST Break All-Time Benchmark Price Record
In my market reports, I'll occassionally refer to something I call a "statistical correction". I differentiate this concept from what most people understand as your typical real estate market correction. A real estate market correction is, as you suspect, an actual and rarely undisputable reduction of housing prices over a prolonged period of time, usually following a real estate bubble. A "statistical correction" on the other hand, is an attempt to explain sharp decreases OR increases in the benchmark value of housing prices, usually on a micro level.
Bear with me here and I'll get us to what's going on in Walnut Grove in a moment. The benchmark value that I generally use (as opposed to the more problematic "average" or "median" values) is usually neighbourhood price that follows a hypothetical "typical" home for that area over time. By nature, this is a conservative value that does not care much for perceived sharp month-over-month changes in the marketplace, such as what we experienced in 2009 and 2016. Due to this conservative nature, what can happen is that over time, the benchmark value can get "out of whack". Whether or not its just an algorithm or if there is an actual human behind the scenes, what ends up happening is a sharp increase or decrease one month to compensate for a statistical lag. Similarly, the opposite may be true. Benchmark values might be shown to be rising or falling faster than reality, simply because there is a lack of data - ie. how can 4 sales in a neighbourhood define a market?
I believe the latter happened in Walnut Grove at the start of summer. With only 7 sales in May, how was an algorithm really able to track prices, especially when that number jumped to 36 in June? Regardless, there is no doubt that the Walnut Grove market this time last year was in the pits - bottoming out at $875,600 in August 2019 - the lowest point since summer 2017 when the market was taking off again. The fall 2019 market cautiously recovered, hitting $905,300 by January 2020. Then it took off. Within 3 months, the typical home in Walnut Grove spiked to $976,200. This is where I believe there was a statistical correction: within 2 months, Walnut Grove homes "fell" to $941,300 in June. However, this proved temporary. Within another 2 months, the prices were back up to $984,000 - the second highest value ever in Walnut Grove.
Whether or not you trust the specifics of this seemingly volatile market, the trend is actually very clear. Sales are up, listings are down. Demand is high, supply is low. This has caused competing buyers to increase the prices on a rapid scale. Instead of throwing you a bunch of percentages that look like gibberish (click on the earlier links for graphs if you like that sort of thing), here are some interesting statistics that really show what's going on:
- Summer Active Listings 2020: 38-45 per month ~ 89 Sales (3 Months)
- Summer Active Listings 2019: 49-69 per month ~ 49 Sales (3 Months)
- Summer Active Listings 2018: 49-60 per month ~ 46 Sales (3 Months)
Townhomes Claw Back to 2018 Price Levels
Walnut Grove townhomes peaked back in summer 2018 with a benchmark value of $655,700. However, by November of that year, the benchmark value had dropped rapidly to $607,600. 2019 was rough, with some positive months, but there wasn't any real indication of a recovery. A year later, in November 2019, the typical Walnut Grove townhome was selling for $598,000. However, confidence in the market started to return in Winter and early Spring with prices increasing and stabilizing around the $614,000 price point. The benchmark value dipped at the start of the pandemic, but came back to that $614,000 mark by June. Since then, prices have been aggressively rising and by August, the typical Walnut Grove townhome reached a value of $627,000 - the highest we've seen it since October 2018.
The number of sales grew throughout spring, peaked at 31 townhome sales in July and fell drastically to 11 in August. Combined with a steadily increasing inventory, this has led the sales to listing ratio to spike in July, only to collapse in August. Of course, by collapse, at 25%, that's still 1 in 4 homes selling in the month, which is still a decent sellers market. With increased competition, however, sellers should make sure that they are pricing their listings right.
Walnut Grove's Few Apartments are Selling, but Prices Remain Flat
Walnut Grove sales jumped from 11 in spring (8 of those being in March) to 19 in summer (only 3 in June), which may sound low but it's actually quite strong. Summer 2019 only had 7 sales, and summer 2018 had 12. Of course, it doesn't come near to the hot 2017 summer that experienced 39 sales.
The lack of listings in Walnut Grove has kept prices from falling like they were in Spring, but they haven't really increased either. After seeing the benchmark price rise from $422,600 in November 2019 to a peak of $459,100 in April 2020 - eradicating 2019's losses - prices dropped back down slightly to $450,500 in June and has been floating around that price point since then, coming in at $451,600 in August.
Walnut Grove Benchmark Sale Prices, All Housing Types, 5 Years
Walnut Grove Sales to Listing Ratio, All Housing Types, 1 Year
Walnut Grove Average Days on Market, All Housing Types, 1 Year